Champions League: What Roma still need to do to qualify

After beating Cagliari 1-0 on Sunday night, Roma jumped back into third in the Serie A standings.

Cengiz Under’s goal means the Giallorossi can almost taste next season’s Champions League. But there is still some work to be done.

WHAT ROMA NEED TO DO

A draw in either of their final two games will be enough for the Giallorossi to mathematically secure a top-four spot, and with it a place in next season’s Champions League, regardless of all other results.

Roma face Juventus (home) and Sassuolo (away).

Before that, however, if Inter Milan lose on Saturday at home to Sassuolo then top four will be confirmed for the Giallorossi. Indeed, if Inter lose either of their remaining games, that will be enough.

THE EXPLANATION

If teams finish level on points in Serie A, the first ‘tiebreaker’ to separate sides is the head-to-head results between those teams over the course of the campaign. Roma hold the tiebreaker over Lazio, while Inter Milan hold the tiebreaker over the Giallorossi.

With Lazio and Inter Milan facing each other on the final day, it is impossible for both sides to get to 75 points (it is also impossible for both of those teams to reach exactly 74 points, preventing the possibility of a three-way tie at that number, from which the tiebreaker would be different).

The highest combined tally the two rival teams can reach is 75 points for Inter Milan and 74 points for Lazio (both teams win next weekend, Inter then win at the Olimpico on the final weekend).

In that scenario, Roma would edge Lazio out of the top four by virtue of the tiebreaker – as long as they pick up one more point from the final two games.

OTHER SCENARIOS

If Roma win one and draw one of their remaining games, they are guaranteed to finish third.

If Roma draw both their remaining games, they will finish third as long as Lazio and Inter Milan play out a draw on the final day, regardless of other results. However, they will be overhauled if either side wins both their remaining matches – but still cannot finish lower than fourth.

If Roma lose both their games, they will not qualify for the Champions League only if Inter Milan win or draw against Lazio on the final day – with both sides having picked up three points the weekend before.

WHAT IT MEANS

With Champions League rules changing for next season, there is no clear advantage between finishing second, third and fourth – from next season all four Serie A teams automatically qualify for the group stages, without need for a play-off round.

However, final finishing positions can affect Champions League prize money divisions - but not co-efficients and draw pots - so there are minor economic considerations in play.