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With just three matches remaining in Serie A, Roma face something of an uphill battle if they are to overtake Napoli and finish second in Serie A – in the process guaranteeing Champions League group stage participation next season.
Following Monday’s dramatic late win over their rivals at the Stadio Olimpico, the Giallorossi sit just two points behind Napoli - but crucially now also have the head-to-head advantage, should both teams ultimately finish level on points.
Wayne Girard looks at the different possible scenarios that could play out over the next few weeks, and what they would mean for Luciano Spalletti’s side come the end of the campaign…
The remaining fixtures
A reminder of the run-in, for those who need it…
Napoli – 73pts: Atalanta (h), Torino (a), Frosinone (h)
Roma – 71pts: Genoa (a), Chievo (h), AC Milan (a)
Inter – 64pts: Lazio (a), Empoli (h), Sassuolo (a)
The permutations
1. If Roma win their final three games, Napoli lose all three and Inter win all three…
Roma finish second with 80 points. Inter and Napoli tie for points with 73, but Inter finish third due to Inter’s head-to-head record, following the Nerazzurri’s 2-0 victory in mid-April.
However, Napoli need just one point from their final three games to ensure Inter cannot overhaul them. That would leave the race between just Spalletti and Sarri’s sides…
2. If Roma win all three games and Napoli win twice but draw once…
Roma are tied with Napoli for 80 points but the Giallorossi take second place due to the head-to-head record.
3. If Roma win all three games and Napoli draw twice and lose once…
Roma finish second with 80 points, ahead of Napoli on 75 points.
4. If Roma win all three games and Napoli win once but lose twice…
Roma takes second place with 80 points, with Napoli finishing on 76.
5. If Roma win two and lose one, and Napoli win, draw and lose…
Roma tie for points with Napoli on 77 but Luciano Spalletti’s side take second due to the head-to-head record.
6. If Roma win, draw and lose and Napoli draw twice and lose once…
Roma take second spot on head-to-head, as both sides finish with 75 points.
7. If Roma draw three games and Napoli draw once and lose twice…
Roma take second spot thanks to a better head-to-head record, with both teams on 74 points. Inter can only reach 73 points, even if they win all three of their games.
8. If Roma and Napoli both win all three of their remaining games…
Napoli finish the season in second place with 82 points, while Roma finish the season on 80 points - and must play a qualifier for the Champions League group stage.
This is also the case if Napoli match Roma’s three results in any other permutation – two wins and a draw, a win and two draws, etc. – unless both sides lose all three games, in which case Inter could sneak in and finish second (on head-to-head record over Napoli) if they win all of their remaining games.
9. If Roma win two and lose one, while Napoli win twice and draw once…
Napoli hold on to second spot with 80 points. Roma finish with 77.
10. If Roma lose all three games and Napoli (and Inter) win all three…
Napoli will finish in second with 82 points, while Roma’s 71 points would be overtaken by Inter’s 73 points. Inter would thus snatch third spot on the final day, meaning Roma would drop into fourth place – and the Europa League.
Inter also have the head-to-head advantage over the Giallorossi, so Roma still need to win one game (or draw all three) to be assured of at least third.
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